In 2020, during the strong expansion of COVID-19, a group of IFAE researchers started to design a simulation tool capable of reproducing the complex features of COVID-19 expansion in Catalunya with the aim to diagnose the most relevant determinants and understand the effectiveness of prevention measures.

A multi-disciplinary collaboration was established with the Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED) and the Internet Research Center (i2CAT). Together the group developed a tool that calculates the daily probabilities for each individual of becoming infected at home, at work or school, or during further social contacts. In the first phase, the project focussed on the Province of Barcelona.

That part of the work is now published in the journal Infectious Disease Modelling (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.12.005 )). IFAE authors include M.Bosman, L.Gabbanelli, M. Manera, M. Martinez, P.Masjuan, Ll. Mir, I. Riu and V. Vitagliano. 

The group now aims at concluding the second phase, with a scope extended to the whole Catalunya and using detailed data provided by AQuAS (Agència de Qualitat i Avaluació Sanitàries de Catalunya). The group received support from the AGAUR program Pandèmies.