This publication is the final outcome of the coordinated research project “A powerful stochastic tool to assess the impact of the COVID-19 in Catalonia integrating detailed demographic and mobility data”, funded by AGAUR in the call PANDÈMIES-2020. The project is led by IFAE (M. Bosman as Principal Investigator) in coordination with the Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED) and the Foundation for Advanced Digital Technologies (i2CAT).

When the COVID-19 pandemic started, the consortium launched a multidisciplinary research effort integrating epidemiological information with demographic structure and mobility patterns. The IFAE team contributing to this project includes L. Gabbanelli, M. Manera, M. Martinez, P. Masjuan, Ll. Mir, I. Riu and V. Vitagliano.

Leveraging disaggregated socio-demographic microdata, mobile phone mobility data and large health datasets, the researchers developed a comprehensive agent-based network model of the Catalan population. Through large-scale numerical simulations covering the period 2020–2021, the model reproduces the historical evolution of the pandemic and allows a quantitative assessment of the population-level impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination campaigns. The figure illustrates the agreement between simulated results and observed epidemiological data for Catalonia.

Beyond its retrospective analysis, the work provides a methodological framework that can be adapted to future public health emergencies. By integrating detailed demographic information and mobility data, the model supports evidence-based evaluation of intervention strategies and their potential impact at population scale.

An Agent-Based Simulation of COVID-19 History in Catalonia Using Extensive Real Datasets
M. Bosman, Y. Cordon, M. Duran-Sala, L. Gabbanelli, C. García-Pérez, X. Jordan, M. Manera, P. Masjuan, A. Medina, Ll. M. Mir, A. Oròs, and V. Vitagliano